SS2 Third Term Further Mathematics Lesson Note – Probability

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WEEK EIGHT

PROBABILITY

CONTENT

• Classical, Frequential and Axiomatic Approaches to Probability
• Simple Space and Event Space
• Mutually Exclusive, Independent and Conditional Events

SUB TOPIC: CLASSICAL, FREQUENTIAL AND AXIOMATIC APPROACHES TO PROBABILITY

There are so many uncertainties in life. Many things are unpredictable in life. That rain may fall on the 1st of September is uncertain and depends on very many factors. Events seem to occur by chance. People love to know what will happen in the future. Many people want to know about weather, sporting events, economic situation.

We carry out experiments in order to be able to predict the outcomes.

Probability is a branch of mathematics that attempts to measure quantitatively the degree of certainty of an event occurring or not.

When we throw a fair coin, the chance of getting a head or tail is what Probability attempts to measure.

Probability therefore is the chance or likelihood that an event will occur. This is always expressed numerically as fraction, for example, the probability that a head will occur when throwing fair coin is one out of two chances. So we write it as;

P(a head) = ¹/₂

There are three ways of classifying a probability;

(i)         Classical Approach:    When we know the total number of possible outcome, and the number of favourable outcomes of an event, we divide the number of favourable outcomes by the total number of possible outcome, i.e.

P(one in throwing a die) = ¹/₆

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